BETWEEN THE LINES
Jonathan Alter
Hillary's New Math Problem
Tuesday's big wins? The delegate calculus just got worse.
Hillary Clinton won big victories Tuesday night in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. But she's now even further behind in the race for the Democratic nomination. How could that be? Math. It's relentless.
To beat Barack Obama among pledged delegates, Clinton now needs even bigger margins in the 12 remaining primaries than she needed when I ran the numbers on Monday—an average of 23 points, which is more than double what she received in Ohio.
Superdelegates won't help Clinton if she cannot erase Obama's lead among pledged delegates, which now stands at roughly 134. Caucus results from Texas aren't complete, but Clinton will probably net about 10 delegates out of March 4. That's 10 down, 134 to go. Good luck.
I've asked several prominent uncommitted superdelegates if there's any chance they would reverse the will of Democratic voters. They all say no. It would shatter young people and destroy the party.
Clinton's only hope lies in the popular vote—a yardstick on which she now trails Obama by about 600,000 votes. Should she end the primary season in June with a lead in popular votes, she could get a hearing from uncommitted superdelegates for all the other arguments that she would make a stronger nominee (wins the big states, etc.). If she loses both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, no argument will cause the superdelegates to disenfranchise millions of Democratic voters. It will be over.
Projecting popular votes precisely is impossible because there's no way to calculate turnout. But Clinton would likely need do-overs in Michigan and Florida (whose January primaries didn't count because they broke Democratic Party rules). But even this probably wouldn't give her the necessary popular-vote margins.
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Posted By: leemortimer @ 03/06/2008 10:44:56 AM
Comment: Very persuasive on the delegate numbers. But you did say the super delegates could be swayed toward Clinton if she ended up with more popular votes than Obama. So, what's the popular vote estimate under your scenario?
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Posted By: kacki @ 03/06/2008 10:44:22 AM
Comment: Thanks for asking.
Which part of the world are you talking about? Are you speaking of N. Ireland, where the government credits HER work to end sectarian violence as pivotal in securing lasting peace?
Or perhaps you are wondering about the Slovak Republic, when she stood in strong solidarity with democracy activists, leading a public challenge against suppression?
Or are you talking about the foreign policy across the globe, specifically in the Phillipines and latin America and the Middle East, to fight for and succeed in the right for women to vote, own property and go to school, because she was their advocate?
Or perhaps you are referring to more information regarding her visits to the poorest and most remote villages in Africa and Asia to teach the poor how to become self sufficient with small loans she secured.
She has been a constant presence in international affairs for 15 years and now holds a position on the Senate Armed Services committee. She has met with dozens of heads of state, including Mandela and Abdulla on VITAL elements of foreign policy.
Obama is making a mistake with this tact, and so are you:) -
Posted By: slogirl @ 03/06/2008 10:42:36 AM
Comment: If Hillary wins, where are all the KIDS going? Where will the huge "concert like" crowds go? Does anyone really think that Hillary can bring "enthusiasm" and "energy" to the Democrats as Obama has? Please give this man his due.
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